Acid Rain Emission Allowances and Future Capacity Growth in the Electric Utility Industry

While the new source emission offset provision contained in recent acid rain proposals would result in increasing utility costs over time, the demand for emission offsets from new powerplant units should be satisfied even under conditions of high future growth in electrical generating capacity. This is because the amount of emissions from new generating units will be small relative to the quantity of offsets that could be made available in the emission “allowance” market.

Under the President’s July 1989 proposal, most utilities would be able to reduce their emissions well below their allowance levels via fuel switching, the installation of control technology, or the use of other emission reduction techniques, in order to create more “headroom” for the construction of new generating units. Retirements and decreasing utilization of existing power plants over time would liberate other emission allowances for use by new units. Industrial sources could “opt in” to the acid rain program and provide allowances for new generating units as well. A number of provisions in the recently passed Senate and House bills would make still further sources of allowances available to offset emissions from new generating capacity.

Hoarding of allowances by utilities is unlikely to be a problem since allowances would be distributed to at least 88 utilities in 34 states, and many of these utilities would have the ability to cost-effectively free up more allowances through “overcontrol” than they would need to cover their own future growth. Even a relatively small number of utilities in a limited number of states would have the ability to supply all of the allowances needed to cover new capacity growth from those entities that could not otherwise provide their own offsets. At projected prices of up to $800/ton, the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would be considerable. Moreover, if hoarding did begin to occur, the price of allowances would respond by rising to higher levels and the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would become even more compelling, as greater opportunities would develop for reducing costs (and electricity rates).     

Planning and Conducting Sampling Surveys of Hazardous Wastes at Industrial Facilities

Many organizations and their consultants are involved in sampling programs to characterize waste streams and materials at industrial facilities. Due to financial limitations, calendar deadlines, or other practical restrictions, a short-term, survey-type sampling plan (“sampling survey”) may need to he implemented. Survey results can he used to determine if the wastes are hazardous or if they are being managed in accordance with applicable regulations. This paper brings together practical experience and diverse information to identify the major concerns in conducting sampling surveys and to suggest methods of approaching these concerns. The paper addresses sampling in time and space, “correct” sampling to minimize bias, selecting equipment to minimize contamination, sample handling, and quality assurance/quality control. Even a quick sampling survey can be a high quality effort with a careful approach to the critical issues.     

Building a better methane generation model: Validating models with methane recovery rates from 35 Canadian landfills

The German EPER, TNO, Belgium, LandGEM, and Scholl Canyon models for estimating methane production were compared to methane recovery rates for 35 Canadian landfills, assuming that 20% of emissions were not recovered. Two different fractions of degradable organic carbon (DOC_f) were applied in all models. Most models performed better when the DOC_f was 0.5 compared to 0.77. The Belgium, Scholl Canyon, and LandGEM version 2.01 models produced the best results of the existing models with respective mean absolute errors compared to methane generation rates (recovery rates + 20%) of 91%, 71%, and 89% at 0.50 DOC_f and 171%, 115%, and 81% at 0.77 DOC_f. The Scholl Canyon model typically overestimated methane recovery rates and the LandGEM version 2.01 model, which modifies the Scholl Canyon model by dividing waste by 10, consistently underestimated methane recovery rates; this comparison suggested that modifying the divisor for waste in the Scholl Canyon model between one and ten could improve its accuracy. At 0.50 DOC_f and 0.77 DOC_f the modified model had the lowest absolute mean error when divided by 1.5 yielding 63 ± 45% and 2.3 yielding 57 ± 47%, respectively. These modified models reduced error and variability substantially and both have a strong correlation of r = 0.92.     

Chromosomal genes conferring tolerance to heavy metal (Ag) toxicity

Bacterial strains were isolated from sediment samples from the Thames River. Successive transfer growth of the various strains on nutrient agar containing increasing concentrations of AgNO₃ revealed that three of the bacterial isolates were found to be capable of tolerating high concentrations of AgNO₃ ranging from 20 to 80 mM on a solid medium and up to 10 mM AgNO₃ in liquid medium. Molecular characterization and identification based on 16S rDNA gene sequencing of three strains of bacteria that are tolerant to silver nitrate showed that the major tolerant strains include the superbug, Shewanella oneidensis, Pseudomonas sp. and Bacillus sp. Protein extraction and two-dimensional (2D) sodium dodecyl sulfate SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) of the protein extracts in bacteria exposed to very high concentrations of AgNO₃ revealed a general reduction in the number of expressed proteins, although two protein spots were conspicuously over expressed in the exposed bacteria compared to control. The N-terminal amino acid sequence analysis of the protein spots identified the major up-regulated proteins as the outer membrane protein To1C (45.2 kDa) and the structural protein of the flagellar filament, flagellin (28.34 kDa), encoded for by the to1C and fliC genes, respectively. The roles of these genes in a number of multi-drug resistant pathogen and potentials for biotechnological applications in toxic metal control for treatment of contaminated ecosystems and biomining were discussed.     

summary of the California aerosol characterization experiment

This report gives a brief summary of the experimental plan and the early results of field observations from the California Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACHEX). The objectives of the program center on questions of the sources and evolution of aerosols in urban air, as they are superimposed on a natural background, particularly as they relate to visibilitydegradation. The project initially nvolved the use of an elaborately instrumented mobile laboratory combined with a fixed station in San Jose, in Pasadena, and in Riverside, and later incorporated several satellite monitoring stations in the Los Angeles Basin. Intensive field observationswere taken from July 1972 to November 1972 in several urban and nonurban locations between the San Francisco Bay area and the South Coast Basin, covering the Los Angeles area. In a second phase of the ACHEX, aerosols accompanying photochemical smog were studied intensively in the Los Angeles Basin during the period between July and October of 1973. The observations cover a wide variety of parameters including physical and chemical properties of aerosols, pollutant gas concentrations, and meteorological variables. The initial results show the great importance of sulfate, nitrate, noncarbonate carbon, and liquid water to the mass concentration of airborne particles and their relation to reduction in visibility. The anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric aerosols is consistently found to be allocated primarily to the submicron or fine particle size range.     

Feasibility of detection and quantification of gas-phase carbonyls in indoor environments using PFBHA derivatization and solid-phase microextraction (SPME)

Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) was evaluated for the detection and quantification of the gas-phase carbonyls: citronellal, glyoxal, methylglyoxal, and beta-ionone. Prepared air samples containing the carbonyl compounds were collected at a flow rate of 2.8 L min(-1) in an impinger containing a 25% reagent water/75% methanol collection liquid. The aqueous samples were then derivatized with O-(2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorobenzyl)hydroxylamine hydrochloride (PFBHA), extracted with a PDMS/DVB coated SPME fiber, and analyzed by GC-MS. Detection limits with a sample air volume of 76 L were calculated to be 0.03 ppbv, 0.34 ppbv, 0.12 ppbv, and 0.28 ppbv for citronellal, glyoxal, methylglyoxal, and beta-ionone, respectively.     

Nitrogen cycling during seven years of atmospheric CO2 enrichment in a scrub oak woodland

Experimentally increasing atmospheric CO2 often stimulates plant growth and ecosystem carbon (C) uptake. Biogeochemical theory predicts that these initial responses will immobilize nitrogen (N) in plant biomass and soil organic matter, causing N availability to plants to decline, and reducing the long-term CO2-stimulation of C storage in N limited ecosystems. While many experiments have examined changes in N cycling in response to elevated CO2, empirical tests of this theoretical prediction are scarce. During seven years of postfire recovery in a scrub oak ecosystem, elevated CO2 initially increased plant N accumulation and plant uptake of tracer 15N, peaking after four years of CO2 enrichment. Between years four and seven, these responses to CO2 declined. Elevated CO2 also increased N and tracer 15N accumulation in the O horizon, and reduced 15N recovery in underlying mineral soil. These responses are consistent with progressive N limitation: the initial CO2 stimulation of plant growth immobilized N in plant biomass and in the O horizon, progressively reducing N availability to plants. Litterfall production (one measure of aboveground primary productivity) increased initially in response to elevated CO2, but the CO2 stimulation declined during years five through seven, concurrent with the accumulation of N in the O horizon and the apparent restriction of plant N availability. Yet, at the level of aboveground plant biomass (estimated by allometry), progressive N limitation was less apparent, initially because of increased N acquisition from soil and later because of reduced N concentration in biomass as N availability declined. Over this seven-year period, elevated CO2 caused a redistribution of N within the ecosystem, from mineral soils, to plants, to surface organic matter. In N limited ecosystems, such changes in N cycling are likely to reduce the response of plant production to elevated CO2.     

Spatial and temporal variability modify density dependence in populations of large herbivores

A central challenge in ecology is to understand the interplay of internal and external controls on the growth of populations. We examined the effects of temporal variation in weather and spatial variation in vegetation on the strength of density dependence in populations of large herbivores. We fit three subsets of the model ln(Nt) = a + (1 + b) x ln(N(t-1)) + c x ln(N(t-2)) to five time series of estimates (Nt) of abundance of ungulates in the Rocky Mountains, USA. The strength of density dependence was estimated by the magnitude of the coefficient b. We regressed the estimates of b on indices of temporal heterogeneity in weather and spatial heterogeneity in resources. The 95% posterior intervals of the slopes of these regressions showed that temporal heterogeneity strengthened density-dependent feedbacks to population growth, whereas spatial heterogeneity weakened them. This finding offers the first empirical evidence that density dependence responds in different ways to spatial heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity.     

The problem and promise of scale dependency in community phylogenetics

The problem of scale dependency is widespread in investigations of ecological communities. Null model investigations of community assembly exemplify the challenges involved because they typically include subjectively defined "regional species pools." The burgeoning field of community phylogenetics appears poised to face similar challenges. Our objective is to quantify the scope of the problem of scale dependency by comparing the phylogenetic structure of assemblages across contrasting geographic and taxonomic scales. We conduct phylogenetic analyses on communities within three tropical forests, and perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to two scaleable inputs: taxonomy and species pool size. We show that (1) estimates of phylogenetic overdispersion within local assemblages depend strongly on the taxonomic makeup of the local assemblage and (2) comparing the phylogenetic structure of a local assemblage to a species pool drawn from increasingly larger geographic scales results in an increased signal of phylogenetic clustering. We argue that, rather than posing a problem, "scale sensitivities" are likely to reveal general patterns of diversity that could help identify critical scales at which local or regional influences gain primacy for the structuring of communities. In this way, community phylogenetics promises to fill an important gap in community ecology and biogeography research.